09.05.2016 - Volatility on the markets remains low
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro rose slightly today, despite the publication of contradictory statistics on the US labor market on Friday. Thus, the unemployment rate was 5.0%, the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector increased by 160 thousand in April, against the forecast of 203 thousand. On the other hand, investors were cheered by the data on the growth of the average wage in the US by 0.3%. Today, it is worth paying attention to statistics on the volume of industrial orders in Germany (06:00 GMT) and the index of investor confidence in the Eurozone (08:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative due to the expected rise in inflation in the US this year, which will likely result in two or more increases in Fed interest rates.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continues to gradually decline against the strengthening of the US dollar, despite the weak data on the labor market in the country. Today, little impact on the dynamics of trading will have news on the index of house prices in the UK (07:30 GMT). On Wednesday will be published important statistics on industrial production in the UK, which will lead to increased volatility. Our forecast for next week remains negative due to the likely increase in speculation regarding the exit of Great Britain from the EU after the referendum on 23 June.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen fell slightly against the US dollar on the background of higher oil prices and despite the weaker data on China's trade surplus. The minutes of the previous meeting of the Bank of Japan noted the likelihood of later reaching the inflation target of 2.0%, which in turn will save the current loose monetary policy in the country for a long time. The consumer confidence index in Japan fell to 40.8 in April from 41.7. We save our medium-term negative outlook on the Japanese currency.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar after the recent decline caused by the decrease in interest rates of the RBA and weak macroeconomic data, corrected today due to rising commodities prices, due to a decrease in oil supply from Canada in connection with the forest fires that led to the disruption of oil supplies. It should be noted that the statistics on the trade balance of China disappointed investors. Thus, exports to China fell by 1.8% and imports by 10.9%. The fall of the Australian dollar is likely to continue in the coming weeks, and we maintain a medium-term pessimistic forecast.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed a decline following the Australian currency. Low inflation may lead to a further reduction in interest rates of RBNZ and instability in commodity markets will put pressure on investors' expectations. On Wednesday, we should pay attention to the speech of the RBNZ chairman, which will take place after the publication of the report on financial stability in the country. Although the probability of correction in the near future, we keep a medium-term negative outlook.