09.06.2015 - Investor sentiment deteriorated
US stock market yesterday continued to decline due to the expectation of an earlier Fed raising interest rates, which may take place after the meeting in September. The reason for such mood has become positive news on the US labor market, which were published on Friday. Today, the mood of investors will depend on the index of small business optimism (13:00 GMT), wholesale inventories and the number of open positions in the US (14:00 GMT). Also, traders continue to follow the negotiations with the creditors of Greece. We forecast growth of indexes in the medium term, but expect a decline in the near future.
European stocks continue to decline amid concerns over the lack of consensus between Greece and its creditors. The negative message to the market was a decline of China's exports of 2.8% in yuan in May. Positive statistics on the growth of German trade balance surplus to 22.3 billion in April, compared with an expected 18.1 billion, was not able to change the mood of investors. Today was published statistics, according to which GDP growth in the euro area in the 1st quarter of this year was 0.4%, which coincided with forecasts of analysts. UK trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed to 8.6 billion, compared with an expected 10.0 billion pounds. We expect increased volatility until the payment of Greece on the IMF loan on 19 June. Our medium-term view remains positive.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region are down today. The Japanese stock market has been negatively affected by the news of the Greek crisis, which strengthens demand for the yen as a protective asset and has led to a drop in shares of exporters. In China today was published statistics on the consumer price index, which slowed growth to 1.2% against the expected 1.3%. This figure was a minimum in 4 months, and encourages the Government to take new stimulus measures. It is worth noting that the index of business sentiment in Australia rose in May by 3 points to 7. Our medium-term outlook for the markets of the region remains positive and we expect increased volatility in the coming weeks.