09.06.2016 - Rising oil prices supported the stock markets
US stock indexes showed a slight increase against the backdrop of rising oil prices, which supported the stocks of the energy sector. At the same time it is worth noting the positive data on the number of open positions in the US, which rose to 5.79 million vs. expected 5.67 million. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the news on wholesale inventories in the US (14:00 GMT), and tomorrow will be released the data on consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan. In the US indices came close to historic highs, and require a significant incentive for continued growth. We expect the beginning of the correction in the near future with the potential of fall by 10-15%.
European stocks yesterday showed a decline on a background of the negative dynamics of the shares of banks and automakers. It is worth noting that the World Bank has downgraded its forecast for global GDP growth this year by 0.5% to 2.4% and by 0.3% in 2017 to 2.8%. Today, the dynamics of trading can significantly affect the data on the volume of industrial production in France (6:45 GMT) and Italy (08:00 GMT), as well as data on the volume of production in the construction sector of the UK (08:30 GMT). The central event of this month in Europe will be a referendum on Britain's membership in the European Union that will take place on 23 June. Volatility in the nearest time will be increased and our medium-term outlook remains positive.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region fell today amid uncertainty about the prospects for further growth on the stock markets, as well as the weak statistics from Japan. Thus, the volume of orders for engineering equipment in Japan in May, declined by 25.0% compared with the same period last year. The consumer price index in China dropped to 2.0% in May, compared to 2.3% in April, indicating that the negative trends in the country, but makes it possible to extend the incentive program. We maintain our positive medium-term outlook for markets in the region, but the probability of decline in the near future remains high.