09.06.2016 - The New Zealand dollar rose after the RBNZ statement
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continued to rise against the background of a gradual decline in interest to the dollar after probability of the Fed's increasing interest rates during the next Fed meeting declined, which was due to uncertainty about the prospects on the US labor market. Growth in the number of vacancies to 5.79 million vs. expected 5.67 million was not able to change the mood on the market. Today, the dynamics of trading may affect data on the trade balance of Germany (06:00 GMT) in the US, and wholesale inventories (14:00 GMT). In addition, we should pay attention to the speech of Fed Chairman Mario Draghi (07:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative, despite the likely continued growth in the near future.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continues to show a strong movement against the publication of various surveys on the results of voting in a referendum on Britain's membership in the EU. It is worth noting that the country's exits from the EU opponents have lost the most, and at the moment almost equal to the number of adherents of this idea. Positive data on the growth of industrial production in the UK by 2.0% in April, against a growth of 0.3% in March, failed to improve the mood of investors. We expect a high level of volatility in the near future.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen strengthened amid the weakening of the US dollar, as well as in connection with the publication of strong statistics on the growth of Japan's GDP in the first quarter by 0.5%, against a previous estimate of growth by 0.4%. A slight impact on investors’ sentiment had data on the volume of domestic orders for engineering products in Japan excluding the ships and utilities equipment which decreased by 11.0% in April against an expected decline of 3.6%. According to our estimates, the potential of growth of the yen is limited and our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar extended gains after the Reserve Bank of Australia decided not to lower interest rates and announced an improvement in domestic demand and exports, which has led to a change in the local downtrend to the positive. It is worth noting that the consumer price index in China dropped to 2.0% in May, compared to 2.3% in April, which gives more opportunities for continuing stimulus in China, which traditionally has a positive effect on the Australian economy. Our medium-term outlook for the Australian dollar remains negative due to the forecast correction on commodity markets.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar has shown a rapid growth with the gap that was caused by the decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep interest rates unchanged at 2.25%, but announced the possibility of softening the country's monetary policy in the near future. In addition, in the statement noted the concern about the high price of the New Zealand currency. According to our estimates, the potential for further growth is limited in the near future we can see the change of the local upward trend to the negative.