09.07.2015 - Hopes on Greece supported the euro
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro shows growth amid hopes regarding the Greek crisis. Thus, EU leaders have given Athens 5 days to present the reform plan, after which will hold a meeting at which will either approve these reforms, or will negotiate the process of exiting the country from the Eurozone. In addition, support for the euro became the minutes of the previous meeting of the Federal Reserve in which was noted that the negative impact of the Greek crisis and slowing growth in China. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the trade balance in Germany (06:00 GMT) and the number of initial unemployment claims in the US (12:30 GMT). We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the euro despite the current positive movement.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound showed an upward correcting movement against the weakening of the US dollar, a technical correction and increase in house prices of 1.7% in June against the forecast of growth by 0.2%. Despite this, the price continues to move within the sustainable downtrend under the pressure of reducing the euro and the US dollar strengthening. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the statement of the Bank of England on monetary policy (09:30 GMT) and the publication of the draft of state budget (11:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we recommend holding short positions.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of yen corrected after a strong strengthening against the background of increased demand for defensive assets due to the fall on the Chinese stock market and the Greek crisis. Correction of prices is due to technical factors, as well as conflicting macro statistics. Thus, the surplus of the balance of payments in May totaled 1.64 trillion yen, compared with an expected 1.39 trillion, but the index of assess the current economic situation in Japan fell to 51.0 in June, against the expected 53.2. The fall on the stock markets of China and the Greek crisis will keep the interest of the yen, but our medium-term outlook remains negative due to the loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and its tightening by the Fed.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed a sharp upward movement against the publication of statistics on the labor market in Australia. Thus, the unemployment rate in June was 6.0%, which is 0.1% better than analysts' expectations. At the same time, the number of employed persons increased by 7.3 thousand against the expected decline of 2.1 thousand. It is worth noting that despite the current positive, quotes are under the pressure of falling commodity prices, which is caused by the fall on the stock markets in China. We expect a drop in prices in the medium term and recommend holding short positions.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar has corrected amid the weakening of the US dollar, as well as in connection with the publication of positive statistics in Australia, which has supported the Australian dollar. It is worth noting that the two economies are closely linked and the dynamics of the Australian dollar has an impact on the New Zealand dollar. We expect a price decline of the New Zealand dollar in the medium term, but at this point we note the possibility of consolidation and correction of prices in the near future.