Statistics from the UK disappointed investors. Thus, the trade deficit in July rose to the highest level since April 2012, against 9.4 billion in June. Imports increased to a maximum of the last 9 months. Trade in services still shows a surplus, but cannot compensate the imbalance of trade of goods. Also today was published data on industrial production, which grew by 0.5% in July, which is 0.3% higher than analysts' forecasts.
The main driver for the price decline of the British pound is currently waiting for the results of the referendum on Scottish independence. We recall that according to the latest polls, the number of people ready to vote for independence has exceeded 50%. We expect further decline of the pound and will revise the forecast after 18 September, when the referendum will be held.