09.09.2016 - The ECB has improved GDP growth forecast for the Eurozone to 1.7%
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro yesterday showed a sharp increase, which was caused by statements of the ECB at a press conference. Thus, Mario Draghi said that the economic stimulus program remains effective and is currently too early to say whether it will be extended after March 2017. In addition, the ECB's improved the outlook for GDP growth in the euro area by 0.1% to 1.7% in 2016. Today, the dynamics of trading will be affected by data on the trade balance in Germany (06:00 GMT) in the US, and wholesale inventories (14:00 GMT). According to our estimates, potential growth in the euro is limited and we maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the euro.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound decreased gradually against the US dollar. It is worth noting that the US currency yesterday was supported by the news on the number of initial unemployment claims, which decreased to 259 thousand vs. expected 264 thousand. Today, it is worth paying attention to the statistics on the volume of production in the construction sector of the UK (08:30 GMT). Investors will continue to monitor the statistics from the UK, which will assess the impact of the country's exit from the EU. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen showed a decline against the US dollar on profit taking after the recent strengthening, as well as the positive dynamics of the American currency. The dynamics of trading in the near future will be affected by the statements of the Fed regarding the possible rise in interest rates this year. On Monday, the dynamics of trading will affect the data on factory orders in the country. The situation remains uncertain, but the potential of strengthening is low. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed a strong decline against the US dollar. The pressure on the dynamics of the Australian currency had data on the consumer price index in China, which fell to 1.3% in August against the forecast of 1.7%. Next week, the focus of investors will be on data on the labor market in Australia, which last times supported the growth, as well as the consumer price index in the US, which greatly affect the expectations on the timing of the Fed raising interest rates. Our medium-term outlook for the Australian dollar remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed a decline after the strong growth of the previous days. Investors fixed positions before the weekend, as well as on the background of lack of drivers for continued growth. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may continue to lower interest rates before the end of this year. Next week, the focus will be on a report on the growth of the GDP of New Zealand in the second quarter. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.