09.09.2016 - The potential growth on stock markets remains low
American stock indices showed a slight decline yesterday on the background of falling stock prices of Apple after the presentation of a new smartphone that did not impress investors. It is worth noting that the number of initial unemployment claims in the US dropped to 229 thousand, against the forecast of 264 thousand. Investors are also watching for news from Europe, where the ECB has decided not to rush with the strengthening of incentives. Today, little impact on the course of trading in the US will have news on wholesale inventories (14:00 GMT). Support for the market will rise in oil prices, which according to our estimates will be short-lived. Our medium-term outlook for US markets remains negative, and after a long consolidation, we expect a strong movement on the market.
European stock indices show a decline amid uncertainty over future growth prospects for the region's markets, as well as the weak statistics from Germany, where exports fell by 2.6% in July, that along with the reduction in imports indicates a worsening of the situation in the largest economy of Europe. Germany's trade surplus totaled 19.4 billion euros vs. expected 21.2 billion euros. It is worth noting that the volume of production in the UK’s construction sector showed a zero change, against an expected decline by 1.0%. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we look forward to the beginning of the correction on the European markets in the coming weeks.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed different dynamics. The negative for the markets was the new nuclear test in North Korea that raised tensions in the region. Today, as the statistics on the consumer price index has been published in China, whose growth slowed in August to 1.3% vs. expected 1.7%. This fact gives grounds to strengthening incentives in China and that is positive for the stock markets. The strong influence on the dynamics of the local market will be speculation about monetary policy in the United States, whose parameters can be tightened this year. Our medium-term outlook is pessimistic.