09.10.2014 - The dollar weakened after the release of the minutes of the Fed

The price of euro extended gains after the publication of minutes of the previous meeting of the Fed at which were discussed the possible consequences of the strengthening of the dollar for the American economy. Thus, the Fed noted that the rise in the dollar may worsen the situation of American goods on the world and domestic markets. In addition, the protocols indicated that the predicted increase in rates was postponed from July to August 2015. Today, the course of trading may be affected by the data on the trade balance of Germany (6:45 GMT) and France (6:45 GMT). In the United States will be published statistics on the labor market (12:30 GMT) and wholesale inventories (14:00 GMT). We look forward to continued growth of the euro in the near future, but keep medium-term negative outlook.

The British pound extended gains against falling dollar, which was caused by the Fed's concern about the negative impact of the strengthening dollar on American producers. Today, the focus of investors will be on the statement of the Bank of England on monetary policy. Thus, during the last statement, the head of the Bank of England said that the rise in interest rates will depend on the growth of wages in the country. At the moment, the British pound is under the pressure of the falling euro and the weakness of the euro area economy. We expect continued growth now and in the medium term, we anticipate rise in quotes of the British pound.

The Japanese yen continued to consolidate despite the weakening dollar. The fall of the American currency and the positive statistics on domestic orders engineering products in Japan, which rose by 4.7% in August against the forecast of 1.1%, failed to change the mood of investors. Monetary policy of the Bank of Japan remains ultra-soft and the central bank may launch new measures to combat the negative impact of increasing the sales tax. In addition, the IMF cut its growth forecast for Japan's GDP to 0.9%, against the previous value of 1.6%. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the yen.

Volatility of the Australian dollar has greatly increased due to the publication of data on unemployment in Australia and falling dollar. For example, the unemployment rate in September rose to 6.1%, which is 0.1% better than expected. Also, the number of employees decreased by 29.7 thousand. Reason for the decline was the reduction of part-time workers. At the same time, the number of people with full-time employment rose by 21.6 thousand. Despite the expectation of continued price growth in the near future, we remain negative medium-term outlook for the Australian dollar.

The New Zealand dollar rose sharply on the news regarding the Fed's increasing concern of the US dollar, as well as in connection with an increase in the Australian currency. Traders continue to monitor the economic situation in China, which is the main exporter of New Zealand goods. Tomorrow the course of trading may be affected by the data on lending in China. At the same time we should pay attention to the fact that the prices of agricultural products in the world remain at low levels, which worsens the trade balance of New Zealand and puts pressure on its currency. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook, but today we can see the continuation of growth.

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