09.11.2015 - Raw materials fell amid rising dollar
The price of gold showed a sharp decline, reaching their lowest levels since August due to increased investor confidence in the Federal Reserve raising interest rates after the publication of a strong report on the US labor market in October. Thus, the unemployment rate fell by 0.1% to its lowest since April 2008 - 5.0%. The number of non-farm payrolls in America grew to 271 thousand against 137 thousand in September. At the meeting in December, the Fed may decide to raise interest rates, which will strengthen the dollar and increase the attractiveness of fixed income instruments compared to gold. We expect a further fall in the price of gold after the correction.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil fell on Friday amid strong statistics on the US labor market, which has led to an increase in the US dollar and increased the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates in December. It is worth noting the report service company Baker Hughes which noted that the number of active drilling oil rigs in the United States decreased by 6 units to 572. The decline in oil production in the United States, which according to our estimates will continue next year, will be offset by increased production in Russia, growth expectations of oil supplies from Iran, after the lifting of sanctions and the persistence of excess supply of oil in the world. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook with a target near 40 dollars per barrel, and recommend holding short positions.