09.12.2013- America creates new jobs
Major stock indexes in Europe and U.S. ended the last trading session of the week in the green zone. The main reason for positive was the publication of a large block of data on the U.S. labor market. Thus, the number of jobs in non-farm sector grew in November by 203 thousands, with expectations of growth of 180 thousands. The unemployment rate fell from 7.3% to 7.0%. Experts predicted a decline to the level of 7.2%. We want to note that the current U.S. unemployment rate is the lowest in the last 5 years. Despite clear signs of growth in the labor market and in the economy of the largest country in the world, investors are anxiously awaiting the upcoming U.S. Fed meeting, which will decide the future of the quantitative easing program. Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will take place on 17-18 December. Among other statistics that influenced the course of trading on Friday we should mention the consumer confidence index, which rose to 82.5, against forecasted 76.2. Personal expenses increased by 0,3% in October, while revenues fell by 0.1%. On the background of the events of Friday, the euro continued to rise and reached the level of 1.37where is now consolidating. We expect the price movement to continue inside the rising channel. Correction is possible to the levels 1.3660 and 1.3600. Growth so far is limited by the level 1.3730. The trade balance in Germany can have an impact on the today’s trading. The British pound keeps moving inside a narrow correction channel. Nearest support in case of further reduction will be at the level 1.6250. Growth is limited by a local maximum at 1.6440. China's trade surplus grew in November to 33.8 billion from 31.1 billion in October. Japan's GDP for the third quarter of 2013 grew only by 0.3% against expected 0.4%. Taking into account these data and positive news from the U.S. Asian markets closed the trading session in positive territory. USD/JPY has completed correction and returned to the rising channel. Now the price is consolidating near the mark 103.00. Support is at 102.10. Growth is limited by the upper boundary of the rising channel. The Australian dollar price corrected after failing to overcome the support at 0.90. We expect a further decline of the exchange rate of Australian dollar, because of the loose monetary policy of the state. This week the course of trading on the pair will be affected by the data on business sentiments the unemployment rate in Australia, which will be published respectively on Tuesday and Thursday. We expect that the quotes the Australian dollar will continue to decline. The closest objectives are the levels of 0.90 and 0.89. Growth is limited by a strong level of resistance 0.9140. A positive labor market statistics from the USA supported the prices of the American benchmark Light sweet crude oil. More jobs should lead to increase in demand for petroleum products. We should recall that the U.S. is the largest consumer of oil in the world, so the data on employment is very important for evaluating the attractiveness of investing in oil. At the same time, good macroeconomic indicators increase the chances of cutting the quantitative easing program in the U.S. Such reduction can lead to decrease of risky assets, including oil. We maintain a long-term negative outlook for oil. The nearest resistance levels are at 98.70 and 100.00. The target prices in case of farther decrease will be the levels of 97.00, 96.60 and 95.20 per barrel. The price of gold continues to move in the side channel 1220-1250 dollars per troy ounce. Strong demand in Asia supports the quotes of yellow metal. China is preparing to celebrate the New Year, which will be held in January, and the wedding season continues in India. Further movement of the gold prices will depend on the U.S. Federal Reserve decision on the future fate of quantitative easing program.