09.12.2015 - Markets are waiting for the Fed decision
US stocks continued to fall, despite the stabilization of oil prices after a sharp fall. The pessimism of investors associated with the weak statistics on import and export in China, which was weak in November. In addition, the index of optimism in the US small businesses fell to 94.8 in November against 96.1 in October. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the news on wholesale inventories in the US (15:00 GMT). The market is waiting for important statistics on retail sales on Friday and is in no hurry to accumulate positions before the Fed statement on monetary policy on 16 December. Our medium-term outlook remains positive, but the probability of a significant correction on the markets is increasing.
European stocks are falling today following the US markets and amid weak data from China. It is worth mentioning that yesterday, investors were disappointed by the news on reduction in manufacturing in UK by 0.4% in November, which is 0.3% worse than expected. At the same time, euro area GDP grew by 0.3% in the third quarter, in line with analysts' expectations. Data on the trade surplus of Germany that in November was 20.8 billion against 19.4 billion in the previous period could not influence the mood of investors. We expect continued market consolidation around current levels before the Fed's decision on monetary policy next week.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed a decrease mainly despite the positive statistics on inflation in China to 1.5% per year in November, which is 0.2% better than the previous period. This fact points to the effectiveness of stimulus steps of authorities. At the same time, the volume of domestic orders for machinery increased by 10.7% in October, which is much better than the expected decline of 1.5%. Tomorrow will be published important statistics on unemployment in Australia. We are waiting for the Fed's decision on interest rates and the market reaction to this step, and then we will review the medium-term outlook.