09.06.2014 - Volatility on foreign exchange markets declined
of euro fell slightly on the background of data on the U.S. labor market. Thus,
the unemployment rate remained at 6.3%, despite the growth forecast to 6.4%,
while the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector grew in May by 217
thousand that is 3 thousand better than expected. At the same time, Germany's
trade surplus rose in April by 2.7 billion to 17.7 billion, and the trade
deficit of France fell by 1 billion to 3.9 billion. Today in Germany and France
is a holiday. The course of trading can be affected by data on the index of
investor confidence in the euro area (8:30 GMT). We keep medium and long term
The price of the British pound fell slightly on Friday in connection with the strengthening of the U.S. dollar after the release of data on unemployment. In addition, the UK's trade deficit rose to 9.6 billion in May against 8.3 billion April. This week we should pay attention to data on industrial production on Tuesday and the labor market of the country on Wednesday. We expect the price correction in the near future, but keep a long-term positive outlook for the pound.
The Japanese yen continued to decline, despite the positive data on GDP growth in Japan by 1.6% in Q1 against the forecast of a decline to 1.4%. At the same time, the balance of payments increased by 0.13 trillion in April against the forecast of 0.23 trillion. Today the course of trading will be affected by data on consumer confidence. In addition, tonight we should pay attention to the monetary base M2 in May and tertiary index of business activity in the service sector in April. We expect a further decline in the yen in the medium and long term.
The price of the Australian dollar has strengthened, despite the day off in Australia. Today in Australia celebrate the Queen's birthday. At 16:00 GMT, we should pay attention to statement by the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia Glenn Stevens, and tomorrow (1:30), will be released the data on the index of business confidence in Australia. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar due to the low prices of iron ore, soft policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar against the reduction of the quantitative easing program.
The price of the New Zealand dollar resumed its decline after the upward correction. Growth of quotes is limited in due to the statement of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on the need to fight high exchange rate of the national currency on low export prices. The central event of the week will be a statement of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on monetary policy on Wednesday. We expect a decline in the New Zealand dollar in the medium term.