10.02.2015 - Greek issue again in the spotlight
The price of euro continues to consolidate above the level of 1.13 amid growing fears of investors about exit of Greece from the Eurozone. It is worth noting that in Greece canceled a number of programs aimed at reducing public spending, and which are necessary to restructure the country's debt. At the moment, the country's budget has a surplus, but for debt servicing are needed new loans. Greek issue will be considered at tomorrow's summit of Eurozone finance ministers. Today, it is worth paying attention to the data on the industry in France (7:45 GMT) and Italy (09:00 GMT). In the United States will be published statistics on the index of small business optimism (14:00 GMT) and wholesale inventories in the country (15:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.
The price of the British pound stopped falling, which was caused by the strengthening of the dollar after data on the US labor market. In addition, the pressure on the pound yesterday was the speech of the Bank of England, which approved the actions of the ECB to start a program of quantitative easing. It is worth noting that today will be published statistics on industrial production in the UK in December (09:30 GMT) and the forecast for GDP growth in the country (15:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the British pound remains negative due to lower euro, but today we can see the strengthening of prices.
The price of the Japanese yen after the sharp fall on Friday caused by the strengthening of the dollar began to strengthen in connection with another rise in demand for defensive assets due to rising speculation about a possible Greek exit from the Eurozone, which threatens the financial stability in the EU. The tertiary index of business activity in the services sector in Japan in December showed a decline of 0.3% against the expected growth of 0.1%. Tomorrow is a day off in Japan and activity of traders will be reduced. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the Japanese currency.
The price of the Australian dollar showed a slight increase on the background of the publication of statistics on the index of business sentiment in Australia, which in January increased by 1 point to 3 points. At the same time, the index of house prices increased in Q4 2014 by 1.9%, which is 0.1% worse than the forecast, but by 0.5% better than analysts' expectations. Tomorrow may grow volatility after the publication of statistics on consumer confidence in Australia. Due to the reduction of investment in the mining sector, the deterioration in the labor market and the trade deficit caused by low commodity prices and a reduction in Chinese imports, we maintain a medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions.
The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to consolidate around the level of 0.7400. Investors are waiting for the publication of statistics on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the country (21:30 GMT). It is worth recalling that the quotes of currency are under the pressure of low prices for dairy products. At the same time, the country's trade deficit is gradually reduced, which together with the steady growth of GDP reduces the potential for further decline of the New Zealand dollar. Despite this we maintain a medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions.