10.02.2016 - Gold may not exceed the level of 1200 dollars per barrel
The price of gold has stabilized below the important level of 1,200 dollars per troy ounce, after strong growth against a background of increased demand for defensive assets due to the fall on the stock market indices in the world, as well as the decline in oil prices. Investors shifted their focus to gold due to the fall in yields of Treasury bonds. Demand for the metal this week will be weak due to the holidays in China, where celebrate the New Year according to the lunar calendar. After strong growth, we may see a corrective movement. In case of continued negative trends on the stock markets, gold will continue to grow, but its potential is low. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Futures price of Light Sweet crude oil continues to decline amid growing inventories, excess of oil inventories and the recent reduction of the forecast of growth in demand for oil in 2016 to 1.17 million barrels per day, against an increase of 1.6 million barrels per day in 2015. Iran continues to increase the volume of exports after the lifting of sanctions against the country, and this trend will continue in the coming months. Data on US oil inventories (15:30 GMT) will be published today. We expect a continuation of the negative dynamics of prices in the near future and medium term against the backdrop of worsening forecasts of world economic growth and the saving the oversupply on the market.