10.02.2016 - The dollar has weakened again

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continues to grow against the US dollar amid falling yields of US Treasury bonds, which is caused by the increased interest of investors to defensive assets. Today, the focus of investors will be on the speech of the Fed's chairwoman Janet Yellen (15:00 GMT). According to the forecasts of most analysts, Ms. Yellen stated that further steps of the Fed will depend on macroeconomic data. In case of dovish rhetoric, the US dollar's decline against the euro will continue. On Friday will be published important statistics on retail sales in the US. Current euro growth may continue in the near future, but the medium-term outlook remains negative.

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Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound rose within the correction amid the weakening of the US dollar, as well as improved trade balance of the country. Thus, the trade deficit was 9.9 billion pounds in December, which is 0.5 billion pounds less than forecast. Today will be published important statistics on industrial production in the country (09:30 GMT). In addition, will be published forecasts for GDP growth in the UK for the 1st quarter of this year (15:00 GMT). We forecast a drop in the price of the British pound in the medium term amid the expected growth of uncertainty in connection with a possible exit from the EU.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continued to fall, but today stabilized in anticipation of Janet Yellen’s speech in the US Congress (15:00 GMT). The producer price index in Japan fell by 3.1% against the forecast of decline by 2.8% in January, compared to the same period last year. Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe said today about the strong state of the Japanese economy and the fall in the country's stock markets, according to him, is more related to negative external factors. The head of the Government expects to take the necessary steps by the Bank of Japan to reach the inflation target of 2.0%. We forecast a drop in price of the yen in the medium term and do not rule out the beginning of the upward correction in the near future.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar strengthened against the weakening US dollar, as well as the positive statistics from Australia, but could not continue the positive trend and now has resumed falling, which contributes to the fall in oil prices. It is worth noting that new home sales in Australia in December rose by 6.0% against a decline of 2.7% in the previous period. The movement of prices in the near future will depend on the dynamics of the US dollar and the situation on the commodity markets. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and expect the fall in the coming days.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar after a slight rebound against the weakening US dollar resumed its fall, which according to our estimates may continue in the near future. Tonight (21:30 GMT) will be published statistics on the index of business sentiment in the manufacturing sector of the country. The growth in the near future is possible only in case of US dollar weakness. Our medium-term outlook remains negative due to weak data on trade and the expected decline in interest rates of the RBNZ.

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