10.03.2015 - The price of euro continued to fall after the start of quantitative easing program
The price of euro fell to its lowest level since 2003 against the background of the beginning of the program of quantitative easing in the euro area, as well as in connection with the speech of the Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, who noted that the Fed should not delay the moment of rising interest rates. Germany's trade surplus in January totaled 19.7 billion euros, 0.7 billion worse than expected. Today we should pay attention to the statistics on the index of optimism in small business (13:00 GMT), wholesale inventories and open vacancies in the US (14:00 GMT). News from the summit of finance ministers of the euro area may also lead to increased volatility. We recommend holding short positions and maintain a medium-term negative outlook.
The price of the pound corrected after failed to reach the psychologically important mark of 1.50. Growth was sustained by fixing positions after a strong downward movement. Today, traders will not rush to build up positions in the expectation of tomorrow's release of data on industrial production in the UK and the release of the forecast for GDP growth in the UK. We expect the resumption of growth of the British currency, but the fall of the euro will put pressure on the British currency quotes.
The price of the Japanese yen continued to decline against the strengthening of the US dollar, as well as the continuation of investment growth of Japanese residents in assets denominated in foreign currencies. It should be noted that the pension fund in Japan, is also going to increase the investment in foreign assets. Negative for the yen remains the revision of the country's economic growth in the 4th quarter to 0.4%. Today was published statistics, according to which orders for machinery equipment rose in February by 28.9%, compared to the same period last year. We expect a further decline of the yen in the medium term.
The price drop in the Australian dollar accelerated against the background of the statistics on the index business sentiment in Australia, which fell to 0 in February, compared to 3 in January. Quotes of the national currency remained under pressure of strengthening US dollar and a drop in iron ore prices to their lowest levels since 2009. Tomorrow is expected the increase in volatility in connection with the release of data on industrial production and investment in China, as well as consumer confidence in Australia. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions.
The price of the New Zealand dollar continued to fall against the weakening of the Australian dollar and the strengthening of the US dollar. Investors expect the publication of data from China. The main event of the week will be a statement of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on monetary policy. Given the steady growth of the economy and the improvement in the trade balance of the country, we expect that the regulator will leave interest rates unchanged. We expect further price decline in the near future, but the downside potential has reduced.