The price of gold continues to consolidate below the important level of $ 1,200 per troy ounce. The reason for the recent decline has been the strengthening of the US dollar, as well as the publication of the minutes of the Fed, which increased confidence in the Fed to raise interest rates in June. Demand for gold on the Shanghai Stock Exchange remains low. Interest in the metal from investment funds also remains low. Demand for gold will rise in case of a fall on the stock markets or deterioration of the geopolitical situation. Today, volatility will be minimal. We maintain a positive medium-term outlook for gold, but soon fall may continue.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil consolidates above 52.00, after falling against another increase in US oil inventories by 10.9 million barrels. Signing the agreement with Iran on its nuclear program may lead to an increase in oil supplies to the market by 1.0-1.5 million barrels per day. Analysts predict that this event will lead to a decrease in oil prices by 5-15 dollars in 2016. The market situation may change in case of deterioration of the situation in Yemen, which may lead to disruptions in oil supplies in the region. According to our estimates drop of oil will continue in the near term and in the medium term, and a change of trend is possible in the case of reducing the oversupply of oil on the market.