10.04.2015 - US labor market remains strong
The price of euro continued to decline, despite the growth of industrial production in Germany at 0.2% vs. expected 0.1% and payment of Greece the debt in the amount of 460 million. Analysts had doubts about the solvency of the country. The number of initial unemployment claims in the US rose to 281 thousand, which is 2 thousand better than expected. Strong labor market data continue to strengthen the US dollar. Today volatility will decrease due to the absence of important macroeconomic data. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the euro and recommend holding short positions.
The price of the British pound continued to decline against the strengthening of the US dollar, which resumed after the publication of minutes of the Fed meeting. It is worth noting that the trade deficit grew up in the UK to 10.3 billion, compared with an expected 8.9 billion. Bank of England interest rates remained unchanged at 0.5%. Today the dynamics of trading will depend on the important statistics on industrial production and construction in the country (08:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the British pound remains negative.
The Japanese yen continued gradual decline amid stronger US dollar. The probability of the Fed raising interest rates in June rose, which strengthened the dollar. Data on the growth of bank lending in Japan by 2.6% in March, compared to 2.5% in February, did not affect the course of trading. Corporate reporting season in the country supports interest in yen. Loose monetary policy in Japan and the expectation of raising interest rates in the US are the main reasons for the fall of the yen. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the Japanese yen.
The price of the Australian dollar continues to consolidate around the level 0.7700. Inflation data in China not strongly affected the course of trading. Thus, the index of consumer prices in China in March was 1.4%, while the producer price index was -4.6%, against the forecast -4.8%. On Monday, the course of trading will depend on the statistics of China's trade surplus, which is a major importer of Australian products. Low commodity prices, weakness in the labor market and the decline in investment are the main reasons for the fall of the prices of the Australian currency in the medium term.
The New Zealand dollar continues to consolidate below 0.7600. The oscillation amplitude decreases, which indicates a strong price movement after the completion of the consolidation. It is worth noting that the country's macroeconomic indicators remain strong and quotes growth is constrained by the policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the strengthening of the US dollar. We recommend to wait for a signal to open positions.