10.06.2016 - The dollar strengthened against major world currencies
Currency trading and the euro. Price of euro corrected against the US dollar on the background of fixing positions by investors. Investors shift emphasis towards more reliable assets, compared with the currencies of emerging markets and commodity-dependent countries. In addition, yesterday was published strong data on the number of initial unemployment claims in the US, the number of which decreased to 264 thousand, against 268 thousand previously. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the data on the index of US consumer confidence from the University of Michigan (14:00 GMT). We expect saving of the interest rates of the Fed on the same level after the meeting that will take place on June 14-15, but the probability of increase is still high in September. Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound showed a decrease against the strengthening of the US dollar and the decline of the euro. The trading dynamics is also negatively affected by the uncertainty about the results of voting on the exit of Great Britain from the European Union on a referendum on 23 June. In case of support for this initiative, we expect the fall of the British currency, but the more likely scenario is the rejection of such a decision, which will lead to the growth of the British pound to 1.5000 level and above. In the coming weeks, the volatility will remain high.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen corrected after the recent strengthening against the backdrop of fixing positions before the weekend, as well as in connection with the strengthening of the US dollar. Strong influence on the dynamics of trading in the near future will have speculations on the timing of the Fed raising interest rates, as well as the demand for defensive assets that can grow in case of correction on commodity and stock markets, the likelihood of which is high. Our medium-term outlook for the yen is a negative, but we do not exclude the strengthening of prices in the near future.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar shows a negative trend against the background of growth of US dollar, fixing positions after recent gains, as well as in connection with the fall in oil prices, which supported growth in recent years. Over the weekend, will be published important statistics on industrial production, which traditionally had a strong impact on the dynamics of trading of the Australian dollar. Given the expectation of correction in commodity markets and the expected tightening of the Fed's monetary policy this year, we keep negative medium-term outlook for the Australian dollar.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed a strong rise yesterday after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided not to lower interest rates, but noted the possibility of such a step during a future meeting. Prices for dairy products, which is the main export commodity group continued to have a negative impact on the local currency, but the situation with the trade balance has improved in recent months. We forecast a drop in the New Zealand dollar in the near future and medium term, and see no reason for continued upward price movement.