10.07.2015 - New hopes on the Greek crisis supported the euro
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed growth after Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras presented new proposals on the reforms, which will be considered by representatives of the EU. In case of a positive result, an agreement on debt restructuring can be achieved on Sunday. The course of trading today may be slightly affected by the data on the volume of industrial production in France (6:45 GMT) and Italy (08:00 GMT), as well as statistics on wholesale inventories in the US (14:00 GMT). We expect increased volatility on Monday and maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the euro.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continues to consolidate after falling during the previous days. The Bank of England yesterday decided to leave the monetary policy parameters unchanged. Support for the British currency was the increase in the balance of the price of homes in the UK by RICS, which in June rose to 40%, vs. expected 37%. The improvement in the housing market is a key driver for improving the country's economy. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the trade balance of the UK and the volume of production in the construction sector (8:30 GMT). We expect increased volatility on Monday and expect price decline of the British pound in the medium term.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen weakened against the background of declining demand for defensive assets, which grew in the first half of the week due to the fall on the stock market of China. Today was published statistics on consumer confidence in Japan, which rose in June to 41.7, which is 0.2 below the forecast and 0.3 better than the previous indicator. At the same time, the producer price index fell by 0.2% to -2.4%. On Monday, we should pay attention to the statistics on the volume of industrial production in Japan. We expect the price decline of the yen in the medium term, but do not exclude a sharp rise in demand for the currency as a defensive asset in the near future.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar rose against the backdrop of improving the situation on the Chinese stock market and concerns about the reduction of commodity prices, which have a strong influence on the Australian currency. The volatility is low today. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar due to expectations of easing of monetary policy by the RBA and low commodity prices and forecast increase in interest rates of the Fed.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar is gradually increasing after a long and steady price decline over the last month. The price increase was due to profit-taking and technical factors. The potential for reducing significantly reduced. We continue to expect a reduction of the price of New Zealand currency in the medium term due to the low prices of exports and the expectation of monetary policy easing of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.