10.08.2015 - Technical view
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro stabilized after rising on Friday, which was caused by fixing positions before the weekend after the publication of statistics on the US labor market. Thus, the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector grew in July at 215 thousand, against the forecast of 222 thousand, the unemployment rate remained at 5.3%. Today, investors' activity will be affected by the news on the index of investor confidence in the euro area from the Sentix (08:30 GMT) and speech of the Deputy Head of Fed Stanley Fischer (11:15 GMT). Investors are still trying to guess the timing of rising interest rates the Fed, which will lead to the fall of the euro. We expect the decline of the euro against the background of the quantitative easing program and recommend to accumulate short positions.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound fell late last week against the background of a statement of representative of the Bank of England on probable keeping inflation at a low level in the next six months, which will lead to the preservation of the Bank of England on interest rates at current levels. Today, investors' activity is reduced due to lack of data release from Britain, but the movement of the US dollar will continue to strongly influence the course of trading. We expect the negative dynamics of the British pound in the medium term.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen strengthened on Friday and is currently consolidating near the previous close. Today was published the data on the balance of payments surplus in June which was 1.3 trillion yen compared to the forecast of 1.41 trillion. At the same time, the consumer confidence index in Japan in July fell to 40.3 against 42.2 expected. Support for the balance of payments was the reduction of fuel price, increased tourism revenues, profits of Japanese corporations abroad due to the weakening of the yen. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the Japanese currency.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar after the strong growth at the end of last week has renewed decline on weak statistics on China's trade surplus, a surplus of which fell to 43 billion in the mud against 46.5 billion in June. At the same time, the consumer price index in China rose to 1.6%, which is 0.1% higher than analysts' expectations. Tomorrow we should pay attention to data on the index business sentiment in Australia. We expect a further decline in price of the Australian currency in the medium term.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to consolidate near the important level of 0.66 after a steady increase at the end of the last trading session. The dynamics of trading is highly dependent on the movement of the US dollar and the price of dairy products. At the moment, we see no reason to change the negative trend, but there is a decrease the potential drop in prices. On the other hand, predicted softening of the monetary policy will lead to a further drop in the New Zealand currency. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook.