10.08.2016 - Traders are waiting for the decision of the RBNZ
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed gains against the dollar on the background of weak statistics on the labor productivity in the US that in the second quarter fell by 0.5% versus an expected increase of 0.5%. It should be noted that exports to Germany increased by 0.3% in June, while imports has grown by 1.0%. Today, it is worth paying attention to the data on the number of open positions on the US labor market (14:00 GMT). Investors are waiting for the important statistics on retail sales, which will be published on Friday. Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative due to the divergence in the monetary policy parameters of the ECB and the Fed and the potential of this growth was reduced.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound showed growth against the background of the weakening US dollar. Investors fixed position after the recent decline of the British currency. It is worth noting that yesterday was released a report on industrial production in the UK, the volume of which rose in June by 0.1%, against an expected decline of 0.1%. According to our estimates, macroeconomic indicators will continue to deteriorate in the UK in connection with the exit of the country from the EU. In this regard, we keep a medium-term negative outlook on the British currency.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen strengthened against the background of the US dollar decline, as well as saving of the uncertainty regarding the prospects for growth in the US stock markets, which greatly reduced the potential growth. Also in Japan was published positive data on the volume of internal orders for engineering products except orders for utility equipment and vessels that grew by 8.3% in June vs. predicted 3.4%. The potential for further strengthening of the Japanese currency is limited in connection with the possible use of foreign exchange intervention in case of further growth of the yen. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar was higher against the US dollar due to the fall of the US dollar, as well as because of the strong report on consumer confidence in Australia, which in August rose by 2.0% against a decline of 3.0% in the previous month. Investors continue to monitor the dynamics of prices for commodities, which has traditionally had a strong influence on the Australian currency. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect renewed decline in the near future.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar extended gains after the Australian currency, as well as due to the weakening of the US currency. Investors are waiting for the decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on monetary policy (21:00 GMT). After the recent reduction in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia, we expect a similar move by the central bank of New Zealand. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, and the decline may be resumed in the near future.