10.10.2016 - Stock indices continue to consolidate
American stock indexes today are closed due to a holiday. On Friday, we have seen a slight decline in the markets of the country after was published more weak data on the labor market. Thus, the unemployment rate rose to 5.0%, against 4.9% in August, while the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector increased by 156 thousand vs. expected 171 thousand. This week the focus will be on retail sales data that will be released on Friday, and the likely drop in oil prices is negatively displayed on the shares of the energy sector. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we look forward to the beginning of the decline after a long consolidation.
European stocks are down today after in the US has been published more weak data on the labor market. In addition, the mood of traders is adversely affected by the deterioration of the expectations of macroeconomic data from the United Kingdom in connection with the exit of the country from the EU. On the other hand the trade surplus in Germany rose to 22.2 billion in August against the forecast of 19.3 billion, and investors' confidence index of the Eurozone in October rose to 8.5, compared to the previous value of 5.6. This week the dynamics of trading will depend on the decision of the Bank of England on monetary policy and the movement of the British currency, which has fallen sharply on Friday, reinforcing investors' concerns about growth prospects on the stock markets of the region. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we look forward to the beginning of the fall in the near future.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region today showed growth against the background of the increase in probability of victory of Hillary Clinton in the presidential elections in the United States on 8 November. The reason for this assessment was the second debate. Winning of Donald Trump will lead to negative consequences for the financial markets due to the unpredictability of the decisions of Mr. Trump. In Japan today is a day off, and Chinese investors returned to the market. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the balance of payments in Japan and the index of business confidence in Australia. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but the fall of the yen may support Japanese indices.