10.10.2016 - Today activity will be low on the background of the holiday in the US
Currency trading and the euro. Price of euro bounced upwards on Friday after was published report on the US labor market. Thus, the number of new jobs in the country increased by 156 thousand against 171 the forecast of thousands, the unemployment rate increased by 0.1% to 5.0%, due to growth in the labor force, and the average hourly wage increased by 0.2%. Despite this, the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates in December, remains high and we expect the resumption of the negative dynamics of the euro in the near future. Today, in the US is a holiday and the dynamics of trading will affect the news on the trade balance in Germany (06:00 GMT) and the index of investor confidence from Sentix in Eurozone (08:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro is negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British currency has stabilized after a sharp decline on Friday, which was held in the absence of fundamental factors and probably was caused by a technical mistake of a trader that under conditions of low trading volume and activating stops orders resulted in a strong downward momentum. After such reduction, we can see the fixation of positions, leading to rising prices correction. Today in the UK is not expected to be released important news, and on Thursday will be published the decision of the Bank of England on monetary policy. Our medium-term outlook remains negative with potential targets at about 1,1500-1,1600.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen has strengthened against the publication of statistics on the labor market in the US that has led to the weakening of the US dollar. It is worth noting that despite more weak data on employment in the United States, the likelihood of increasing the Fed's interest rates remains high. It is worth noting that the sudden drop in the British pound has led to increased demand for defensive assets. We forecast a decline in quotations of the yen after the current correction. Today in Japan and the United States is a day off tomorrow on the dynamics of trading will slightly affect the data on the balance of payments in the country. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed a sharp increase on the background of the recent decline of the US dollar in relation to the publication of more weak data on employment in the country. Investors continue to monitor the situation on the commodity markets, which greatly affects the Australian currency. Tomorrow, will be released the data on the index of business sentiment in the Australian community. Our medium-term outlook for the Australian currency remains negative and the probability of falling in the coming months will be increased due to the unreasonably strong growth in the previous months.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar has stabilized after the recent rebound of quotations and soon a major impact on the course of trading will have news on the dynamics of prices for dairy products and the US currency. On Wednesday night will be released statistics on the index of business sentiment in the manufacturing sector of the industry. We expect a decline in the near future and medium term, against the background of negative statistics on trade and saving the probability of monetary policy easing.