10.11.2015 - The market situation has stabilized
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro yesterday showed a slight correction after a sharp fall on Friday caused by strong statistics on the labor market, which has led to an increase in confidence in the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in December. In addition, the euro was supported by rumors about the fact that the ECB is likely to cut rates, but will not to increase the monthly volume of the quantitative easing program, which now totaled 60 billion euros. It is also worth noting the increase in the index of investor confidence in the euro area to 15.1 in September against the forecast of 12.4. Today, it is worth paying attention to the Chicago Fed president's Charles Evans speech (07:30 GMT) and the index of small business optimism in the US (11:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we are waiting for further decline of the euro in the near future.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound corrected yesterday after a sharp fall last week, which was caused by the strengthening of the US dollar. Investors decided to partially fix positions and wait for new signals. Today, volatility will be low due to the lack of important events. In addition, investors will not rush until tomorrow's publication of data on the labor market in the country, after which the head of the Bank of England will make a speech. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continues to decline after yesterday's correction of prices, which was caused by technical factors. Negative for the Japanese currency became the weak data on the balance of payments surplus in September, which was only 0.78 trillion yen compared to the forecast of 1.50 trillion yen. Tomorrow should pay attention to statistics on the volume of orders for engineering equipment in Japan and the industrial production in China. We expect consolidation of prices in the near future and reduction of volatility. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar has stabilized after a sharp fall on Friday. Today was published statistics from China according to which the consumer price index was 1.3% in October, which is 0.2% less than analysts' forecasts, and points to the risks associated with low inflation, which pushes the PBOC to the strengthening of measures to stimulate the economy. At the same time, the index of business sentiment in Australia in October fell to 2 from 5 in September. We expect a further fall in the price of the Australian dollar in the medium term due to the pressure of low commodity prices and weak data from China.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar has stabilized after the recent decline, and investors are reluctant to open new positions before today's publication of the report on the financial stability of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (20:00 GMT), after which will speak central bank chief Graeme Wheeler. More likely is a continuation of the negative dynamics of prices and we maintain a medium-term negative outlook.