The price of euro yesterday showed continued growth amid weakening of the US dollar and strong data on German trade balance a surplus of which totaled 20.6 billion, against the expected 18.1 billion. Despite this, growth of the euro was restrained by the news from Greece, where the presidential elections will be held earlier than expected. The index of small business optimism in the United States continued to grow and reached 98.1, compared with an expected 96.6, while wholesale inventories rose 0.4%, which is 0.3% more than expected. Today, it is worth paying attention to data on requests for mortgage loans in the US (12:00 GMT) and US federal budget balance (19:00 GMT). Our medium-term negative outlook for the euro remains unchanged.
The price of the British pound continued a gradual increase amid weakening of the US dollar. Quotes increased despite unexpectedly weak data on industrial production in the country, where in October industrial output fell by 0.1%, compared with growth by 0.7% in September. Today's publication of data on the country's trade balance for October (09:30 GMT) may lead to increased volatility on the market. At the moment, there is no signal for opening long or short positions and traders have taken a wait. We recommend to wait for the new incentives for opening positions on the British pound.
The price of the Japanese yen started to strengthened sharply amid weakening US dollar and rising demand for defensive assets after China unexpectedly tightened credit conditions in the country. In addition, the political crisis in Greece may adversely affect the situation in the Eurozone. Fall was also accelerated by reducing the yield of US Treasury bonds and the dollar selling by Japanese exporters. Given the current situation, we recommend to fix positions on the Japanese yen and wait for further signals.
Volatility of the Australian dollar has grown in the last days. So, yesterday we saw a strong upward correction movement, which was offset by news from China, where were tightened credit conditions, and today was released statistics on reduction of the producer price index up 2.7%, which is 0.4% worse than the forecast. Tomorrow is also projected the increase of activity of traders in connection with the publication of data on the labor market in the country. Despite the correction, we expect a further decline of quotations in the medium term.
The price of the New Zealand dollar shows a strong volatility against the background of a number of contradictory external factors. It is worth noting that the price is trying to stabilize after the sharp fall earlier. At the same time, investors are in no hurry to open new positions before the statements and report of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on monetary policy. We expect a continuation of the downward movement of quotations of the New Zealand dollar in the medium term and maintain a medium-term negative outlook.