10.01.2014 - Traders are waiting for the data on the U.S. labor market

Major European stock indexes ended the trading day lower. The reason for the sale was the statement by ECB head – Mario Draghi, according to which it is still early to speak that economic growth in the euro area is not in danger. This statement was not new to analysts, but still led to the fixing positions on the market. Let us recall that the ECB have left the refinancing rate at 0.25%, the deposit rate at the level 0.00%. Also yesterday was published the data on industrial production in Germany, which increased by 1.9% in November, with growth forecast at 1.6%.

Trading day in America ended near the previous close levels. Markets continued to trade over the publication of minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting that indicated reduction in effectiveness of the QE program, and rise of risks for the economy. On the other hand the number of unemployment claims in the U.S. decreased to 330 thousand, against 337 thousand forecasted.

On this background euro reached 1.3550 level, after the speech of Mario Draghi, but afterwards has started to correct. First target at the further growth will be level 1.3660. Support lies at 1.3550. The course of trading today will be affected by the labor market data in the U.S. (13:30 GMT) and the final figure of the Eurozone GDP growth in Q3.

The British pound continues to grow inside the rising channel. The price of pair has fixed above 1.6460 level. The closest target in case of growth continuation will be 1.66. The correction is possible to the bottom line of the rising channel. The bullish attitude of traders for the British currency is reasoned by consistent growth of the economy, reduction of unemployment and stable monetary policy of the Bank of England. Today we should pay attention to data on industrial production of the country (9:30 GMT).

The index of leading economic indicators released in Japan in November appeared 0.1% worse than expected, at 110.8%, but the results surpassed the previous figure 109.80%. The price of USD/JPY continues to consolidate near the level of 105.00. We expect the pair to continue its movement inside the rising channel. Support is situated at 104.60. In case of the growth resumption, the first target price will be at the resistance – 105.40.

Quotations of the Australian dollar continue to move within the local downward channel. New home sales in Australia have risen by 7.5% in November compared with a decline to 3.8% in October. This fact did not have a significant influence on price movement. We maintain our negative outlook on the AUD/USD. The target price in case of further reduction is at 0.8840. Growth is limited by the psychological mark of 0.90.
As was expected, the quotes of Light Sweet crude oil reached 92.00 dollars per barrel, and then began to correct. Future movement of oil prices will depend from the data on the U.S. labor market. After a sharp decline in recent weeks, we expect a significant correction. The price may reach resistance level 93.60.

Gold continues to rise within the corridor 1220-1242 dollars per troy ounce. In case of breaking through the 1242 level, the price may reach 1265. Support is at 1220. In the long term on the quotes of gold are under the pressure of low inflation, weak demand for physical gold and high yields from investing in risky assets.

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