10.02.2014 - The number of unemployed in the U.S. has declined again
U.S. stock markets ended the day with steady growth. The reason for the rise of indexes was the data on the labor market. Thus, the number of non-farm payrolls rose to 113 thousand compared to 75 thousand a month earlier. Analysts had expected growth to 185 thousand in the same time, the unemployment rate in January was 6.6%, which is 0.1% above expectations of experts. In Europe, was published the statistics on the trade balance of Germany, which reduced to 18.5 billion in December, while the forecast of decline was to 17.3 billion euro. Industrial production has fallen by 0.6% in December, against the growth forecast 0.5%.
On this background, the quotes, of EUR/USD rose within the descending channel to the level of 1.3630. Today the course of trading will be affected by data on industrial production in France (7:45 GMT) and Italy (09:00 GMT). Today also will be published the index of investor confidence in the Eurozone (09:30 GMT).
The price of the British pound showed a steady growth amid data from America, as well as indicators of growth of the national economy. British industrial production in December has increased by 0.4%, against a decline by 0,1% in November. Analysts had expected the figure to increase by 0.7%. The trade deficit narrowed to 7.7 billion pounds, against the forecast of 9.3 billion pounds. Today in the UK is not expected the release of important statistics and traders will continue to trade the Friday news.
The price of USD/JPY continues to grow gradually and now is consolidating around 102.50. Weakening of the national currency of Japan is due to the growth of current account deficit to 0.20 trillion. yen against the forecast of 0.06 trillion. yen., reduction of of consumer confidence to 40.5, while expected growth was up to 43.9, as well as worsening the economy watchers sentiment in Japan to 54.7 vs. expected figure 55.5. We maintain a long-term positive outlook for quotations of USD/JPY.
The price of the Australian dollar, failed to overcome the psychological level 0.90. Despite the statement of the Reserve Bank of Australia that interest rates will not be reduced in the near future, the monetary policy of the regulator remains quite soft and is aimed at further weakening of the national currency. We expect the resumption of the downward movement within the channel, but it is worth noting that the potential of further fall decreases gradually.
The quotes of American oil standard Light Sweet have reached the psychological level of $ 100 per barrel on positive data from the U.S. labor market. Fixing the price above this level is unlikely to happen. The growth of oil production continues to outpace the growth of consumption. With improved weather, inventories of oil and petroleum products in the U.S. will grow, and it will lead to oversupply on the market. We maintain our negative outlook on quotations of oil.
Gold prices have grown due to the return of Chinese traders on the market after the New Year celebration. At the moment, the price of gold is consolidating near the strong level of 1265-1270 dollars per troy ounce. A strong fundamental factor will be needed for the continuation of the upward movement.