Major U.S. stock indexes finished the last trading day of the week differently. Statistics on the U.S. labor market was mixed. On the one hand the unemployment rate in February has made 6,7%, which is 0.1% higher than the previous record and analysts' expectations. On the other hand the number of jobs in non-farm sector of the United States increased by 175 thousand compared to a forecast 151 thousand and the previous figure 129 thousand. The trade deficit in the U.S. in January rose less than expected and reached 39.1 billion.
It is worth noting that the increase in unemployment is a very strong negative factor, which again points to the possibility of a soon end of growth of U.S. stock indexes.
On this background, the euro continued to strengthen and probably will reach the level 1.39. The course of trading today will be affected by data on industrial production in France (7:45 GMT) and Italy (09:00 GMT). In addition, special attention should be paid to investor confidence index in Eurozone (09:30 GMT). Despite the data on unemployment in the U.S., we keep long-term negative outlook for the euro, but in the near future we are likely to see a continued growth.
The British pound continues to move inside the rising channel and now the price is consolidating above the strong level of 1.67. Consumer expectations for inflation of 2.8% did not strongly influence the movement of a currency's price. Controversial data on the U.S. labor market, have also failed to change the direction of the price. Today is not expected the important macro, but on Thursday will be released a quarterly report of the Bank of England on the country's economy, which will help to determine future prospects for growth of the British pound. We maintain long-term and medium-term positive outlook for the British pound.
The price of USD/JPY in the last trading session was very volatile. So, a strong growth of price was triggered by data on the U.S. labor market, but the increase was short-lived and quotes returned to previous levels. Now USD/JPY consolidates above 103.00. GDP growth in Japan for the 4th quarter was 0.2% as was expected, the current account deficit rose in line with expectations of experts to 0.59 trillion. Index of the current economic situation in Japan fell in February by 1.7 to 53.00. Tomorrow we expect an increase in volatility after the release of data on the M2 monetary base in Japan. We keep medium and long term positive outlook for the USD/JPY.
After a strong growth on Friday the quotes of Australian dollar began to decline. Message that the trade balance of the main trading partners of the country - China showed a deficit of 23 billion against the expected figure of 13.2 billion greatly disappointed bulls. This week we should pay attention to data on unemployment in Australia, which will be released on Thursday. We keep medium and long term negative outlook for the Australian dollar.
On Thursday will be issued a statement of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which will help to determine the future direction of price of NZD/USD in the medium term. At the moment, the New Zealand dollar decreased amid weak data from China and is consolidating above 0.8450. In the near future the price may continue its upward movement, but in the long term, we maintain a negative outlook.
The price of oil Light Sweet corrected upwards on background of data on the U.S. labor market. In addition, the quotes are supported by the highest tense between the West and Russia since the Cold War. We expect a decline of tension in the medium term, which will lead to a drop in oil prices. In addition, U.S. consumption will decrease due to warming and oil production rates in America are at record levels. We maintain our negative medium and long term outlook for oil.
The price of gold continues to move in the corridor 1330-1350 dollars per troy ounce. To the decline in the prices of the metal contributed data on creation 175 thousand new jobs in non-farm sector of the USA. Despite this, investors are skeptical about the prospects of further growth in the stock markets and continue to pay more attention to defensive assets such as gold. We keep medium and long term outlook for gold.