10.06.2014 - Probability of correction on stock markets increased
First trading session of the week on the U.S. markets was calm. The major indexes have not changed much. Positive for the market has become the data from China that increased its trade surplus by 7% compared to the same period last year. In the United States was not published any important macro and many European markets were closed. The U.S. stock market is at its all-time highs, but there are no new drivers for further growth. Today we should pay attention to the data on wholesale inventories in the U.S. (14:00 GMT). We expect a correction on the U.S. markets and maintain a long-term negative outlook.
Trading session on the markets in Germany and France were closed yesterday. UK market rose slightly on positive data on GDP growth in Japan. At the same time investors negatively perceived message on reduction of the index of investor confidence in the euro area in June to 8.5 with an expected growth to 13.5. We recall that in May the figure was 12.8. Today was announced that industrial production in France increased by 0.3%, which coincided with the forecast of analysts. We expect a correction on the European stock markets in the coming days.
Stock indexes of Asia-Pacific region are moving in different directions. Thus, data on the growth of inflation in China to 2.5% in May, compared with 1.8% in April does not bother investors because the inflation target of the Chinese government is 3.5%. The Australian stock market is rising against the demand for shares of the commodity sector. Japanese market declines after the release of data on the fall of the tertiary index of business activity in the service sector in Japan by 5.4% in April, as well as slower growth of orders for machinery equipment to 24.1% in May from 48.7% in April. We expect a decrease on Chinese and Australian market, but anticipate continued growth in Japan.