10.07.2014 - Minutes of the Fed has led to a decrease of the dollar
part of yesterday's trading session was held in anticipation of the publication
of minutes of the previous meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee of the
U.S. Federal Reserve. Investors expected clear deadlines of raising interest
rates, but in the minutes was pointed only that the a decision to end the
quantitative easing program will be taken at a meeting in October and then
reduction can be $ 15 billion. In addition was noted the acceleration of
economic growth in second quarter after an unexpected drop in the first. As a
result, the euro price of at first fell but then won back losses and continued
the growth. Today trade dynamics will depend on the statistics on the industry
in France (6:45 GMT) and Italy (08:00 GMT), as well as data on the U.S. labor
British pound yesterday showed growth amid a weakening of the U.S. currency after the publication of minutes of the meeting at the Fed. Decrease in price index for homes in June was not negatively taken by the market. Today is possible the rise in volatility after the statement of the Bank of England on monetary policy and the publication of data on the trade balance in the UK in May (11:00 GMT). We expect strong price movement in the near future and maintain a medium-term positive outlook for the pound.
The Japanese yen started to fall in price yesterday after news from the U.S., but then changed the dynamics of prices and national currency of Japan began to strengthen again. Strengthening of the yen continued, despite the negative statistics on domestic orders for machinery, which fell by 19.5% against the forecast of growth by 0.9%. Tertiary services PMI grew by only 0.9% in May, which is 1.0% worse than the forecast. We predict that the strengthening of the yen will not be long and the currency will begin to fall in price in the medium term.
The Australian dollar showed growth following the world's major currencies amid falling U.S. dollar, but the dynamics of prices changed after publication of data on unemployment growth in the country by 0.1% to 6.0% in June. At the same time the number of employed people increased by 15.9 thousand, which is 2.6 thousand better than the forecast. Statistics from China also disappointed investors. We look forward to continuing descending movement and maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar.
The New Zealand dollar has shown growth like most of the major world currencies, but the fall of the Australian currency and weak data on China's trade balance, the surplus of which fell to 31.6 billion, compared with an expected 37.3 billion, have led to the growth stop. The reason for the increase of quotations were also news about the growth of the Business NZ manufacturing index in New Zealand to 53.3 in June, that is 0.7 better than in May. We expect the beginning of a slight correction in prices soon.