11.02.2015 - Investors are waiting for news from the meeting of Eurozone finance ministers
The price of euro continues to be under the pressure of the Greek crisis. Earlier, the Prime Minister said that Greece will not extend the credit agreement which ends on 28 February the current circumstances. Today will be a meeting of Eurozone finance ministers, which will consider the Greek question. Speculations regarding this issue lead to a strong increase in volatility. Negligible impact on the course of trading this week will be the news on the US federal budget execution (19:00 GMT). In the near future movement of the price of euro will depend on the decision of the Greek problem, but the medium-term outlook remains negative due to the program of quantitative easing in the Eurozone.
The price of the British pound yesterday strengthened against the US dollar after the publication of forecasts for GDP growth in the UK in 2015 by 2.9%, which is 0.3% better than last year. The main reason for the increase of the index will be growth of consumption, which will contribute to lower energy prices, which will lead to increased demand for other goods. At the same time, the volume of industrial production in the UK in December decreased by 0.2% against the expected growth of 0.3%. Today, in the country is not expected to be released the important macroeconomic data and investors will monitor statements by European officials on the Greek crisis. In addition, tomorrow will be published the report on inflation in the UK, which will increase volatility. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook.
The price of the Japanese yen continued to decline on news of a possible extension of the credit program for Greece for 6 months during which Greek bonds will be accepted as collateral for refinancing. In addition, statistics on the number of vacancies in the US dollar has strengthened. Thus, the index rose to its highest level since January 2001 - 5.028 million jobs. Today in Japan is the day off. The dynamics of prices in the near future will depend on the demand for defensive assets. The course of trading will be affected by the news on a meeting of Eurozone finance ministers, as well as talks in Minsk on Ukrainian crisis. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the yen.
The price of the Australian dollar continues to move sideways because of the uncertainty and of further prospects the need of a new driver for further movement. Data on consumer confidence index, which rose in February to 8.0%, against 2.4% in the previous period could not change the movement of the price. Investors continue to monitor the prices of commodities. In addition, earlier in the RBA said that they expect deterioration in the labor market and the decline in investment in the mining sector. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar and recommend holding short positions.
The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to consolidate. The amplitude of price fluctuations is reduced. Stimulus for the strong price movement after a long consolidation can be the publication of data on an index of business confidence in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand (21:45 GMT). In addition, investors are closely watching the economic performance of China, which deteriorate and pressure on quotations of the New Zealand currency. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook.