11.04.2016 - The yen resumed growth

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continues to consolidate around the level of 1.1400 in anticipation of new incentives for the price movement. The growth potential in the near future is limited, despite the high probability of keeping the Fed's monetary policy settings unchanged after the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on April 26-27. Today in the euro area will not be published important statistics and the course of trading may affect the speech of US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew (12:30 GMT). Investors will not rush to build up positions ahead of the US publication of statistics on retail sales on Wednesday. Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound corrected upwards against the US dollar on the background of technical factors. It is worth noting that investors ignored weak statistics on industrial production in the UK, the volume of which fell by 0.3% in February, against expected growth of 0.1%. Tomorrow will be published important data on inflation, which may increase volatility. The growth potential in the near future is limited by the risk of exit from the UK after the EU referendum on 23 June. Our forecast for the coming months remains negative.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen again strengthened despite speculation about the possibility of intervention by the Bank of Japan to deal with the growth of the Japanese yen, which adversely affect the economic situation in the country. Finance Minister Taro Aso said in his speech about concerns on the dynamics of the yen, but intervention may be negatively taken by other countries in the world. Today was published data on the volume of domestic orders for engineering products with the exception of vessels and municipal equipment, which fell by 9.2% in February against a growth of 15% in January. In any case, according to our forecasts, the yen resumed falling and it has significant potential for reduction during the year.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar continues to move within the local downtrend, but the rise in oil prices raised investors' optimism about the Australian currency. Tomorrow will be published data on the index of business sentiment in Australia in March. On Thursday, we expect increased volatility following the publication of a report on the labor market in Australia, and on Friday will be published data on the GDP and industrial production in China, which will have a strong impact on the Australian dollar. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed a slight increase, but continues to consolidate in anticipation of new incentives. On Thursday will be published statistics on the index of business confidence in the manufacturing sector of the economy. In addition, the dynamics of trade will continue to be under influence of external factors such as data from Australia and China, as well as the movement of the US dollar. Our medium-term outlook for the New Zealand dollar remains negative.

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