11.05.2016 - The dollar weakened against major currencies
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed a slight increase this morning in spite of yesterday's publication of weak statistics on industrial production in Germany, which fell by 1.3%, against an expected decline of 0.2% in March. Today, the dynamics of trading can be significantly affected by the news on the US federal budget (18:00 GMT). In general, investors are waiting for the publication of the US retail sales report on Friday, which may affect the Fed's decision on raising interest rates this year. Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound showed a slight upward correction after the recent price reduction. Today, we expect increased investor activity on the market after the publication of the report on industrial production in the country (08:30 GMT) and the forecasts for GDP growth in the UK (14:00 GMT). Given the risks associated with the referendum on the country's membership in the EU and the deterioration of the macroeconomic indicators, we expect the fall of the British currency price in the coming weeks.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of Japanese yen showed gains after recent sharp decline against the US dollar, which was caused by covering of short positions on the pair USD/JPY. It should be noted that the statement by the Minister of Finance on possible intervention in the market, which leads to the weakening of the yen, also supported the decline of the Japanese currency. Tomorrow will be published data on balance of payments in Japan. Our medium-term outlook for the yen remains negative due to the divergence in monetary policy, the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar corrected upward against fixing positions after the long-term decline in the previous days. Support for the Australian currency was the news on the growth of the index of consumer confidence in May by 8.5% compared with a decrease of 4.0% in April. It is worth noting that the probable decline in commodity markets will have a negative impact on the price of the Australian dollar in the near future.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed a sharp increase after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced its intention to launch additional steps to combat the imbalances in the housing market. At the same time the growth of the Australian currency was an additional factor that supported the New Zealand dollar. On the trading dynamics in the near future will affect the statistics on the index of business sentiment in the manufacturing sector of the industry in New Zealand. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.