11.05.2016 - We expect the resumption of oil fall
The gold price corrected upwards after the recent decline caused by the strengthening of the US dollar. The main factors that continue to influence the dynamics of the precious metal prices remain expectations of Fed interest rate increase, which is more likely in the second half of the year due to the expected rise in oil prices, which will increase inflation in the US, as well as the current situation on the stock markets, where grows the likelihood of correction due to continued decline in corporate profits and worsening of the US macroeconomic indicators. Our medium-term outlook for gold remains negative, but we can see the resumption of growth in the near future.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil continued consolidation and volatility of prices is gradually decreasing. Investors are waiting for the publication of today’s report on the US oil inventories (14:30 GMT). The price yesterday was negatively affected by the statement of representatives of Kuwait, about an intention to increase the volume of production to 4 million barrels per day until 2020. At the same time, forest fires and attacks on oil infrastructure in Nigeria will have a temporary effect on the market situation. At the same time, the growth of production in Iran, Saudi Arabia and Russia, will continue to put pressure on the price of oil. Our forecast for the coming months remains negative and we expect the beginning of a strong correction in the near future.