11.06.2015 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand reduced interest rates by 0.25%

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed steady growth amid rising German bonds’ yields to a level above 1.00%. The reason for the sales was a positive expectation regarding the negotiations of Greece and creditors. We recall that till June 19, the country needs to pay about 1.6 billion euros. The Greek crisis will continue to maintain volatility at a high level in the near future. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the news on retail sales in the US (12:30 GMT), the growth of which can lead to a drop in euro. We should also pay attention to statistics on inventories in the US (14:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we recommend waiting for the signal for the opening short positions.

May 1, 2015 of EUR-USD Performance

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound showed steady growth due to the publication of strong statistics on industrial production, which rose in April by 0.4% that is 0.3% better than analysts' expectations. It is worth noting that the largest increase was recorded in the sector of oil and gas. The largest decline was in the pharmaceutical sector. The balance of house prices in the UK was 34%, which is 2% better than the previous figure. Rising prices could continue in the near future, but in the medium-term our forecast on British currency remains negative.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen showed strong growth after the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda said that the yen is not likely to continue to decline and the possible increase in interest rates the Fed is already in the prices. In addition, support for the Japanese currency was the news on the growth of domestic orders for machinery, which rose in April by 3.8%, compared with an expected decline of 2.0%. The index of business sentiment in large industrial companies in the country in the second quarter fell by 6.0 against the expected growth of 3.2. Our medium-term outlook for the yen remains negative.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed growth despite the strengthening of the US currency. The reason for optimism became a strong labor market data of the country. Thus, the unemployment rate in May dropped to 6.0%, which is 0.1% better than the previous period and 0.2% better than analysts' expectations. The number of employed people increased by 42 thousand against the expected growth by 12.1 thousand. Despite the improvement in the labor market quotes of the Australian currency remains under the pressure of low commodity prices and slowing growth in China. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the Australian dollar.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed a sharp decline after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand reduced interest rates by 0.25% to 3.25% and announced the tendency to soften the monetary policy to maintain demand in the country and stimulate inflation. In addition, the incentive for monetary easing was the deterioration of prospects for a rise in prices for dairy products, which is the main export group for New Zealand. As a result, the quotations have reached the target level of 0.70, but may continue to fall in the near future.

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