11.07.2016 - American markets are near all-time highs
Futures on American stock indexes pointed to a rise within which have reached historical highs. The reason for optimism was the positive statistic on the growth of the number of non-farm payrolls by 287 thousand vs. expected 175 thousand. It is worth noting that the unemployment rate rose by 0.2% to 4.9%. Despite the positive trend in the labor market, the probability of the Fed tightening monetary policy this year is still low, which is positive for the stock market. This week begins the season of corporate reporting, which will greatly affect the mood of investors. In addition, on Friday will be released important statistics on China's GDP and inflation in the United States, which will lead to an increase in volatility. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
European stocks today show a positive dynamics against the background of data on employment in the United States, as well as in connection with the expected additional measures to stimulate the economy of the European Union against the background of the negative impact of the UK’s exit from the EU. Today in Brussels is held a meeting of finance ministers of the European Union countries and news from this summit can lead to strong movements. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the UK’s Parliament meeting on inflation, where important statements can be made as well. We forecast a decline in European markets due to the negative influence of the British exit from the European Union structure.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed growth against the backdrop of the positive impact of strong US data and rising optimism on global markets. The fall of the yen had a positive impact on the value of shares of exporters. At the same time, the ruling party has won the elections in Japan’s upper house of parliament. The central event of this week will be the publication of the report on the growth of China's GDP in the second quarter. According to our estimates, the market risks remain high and remains a significant probability of a negative price dynamics. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the data on the index of business sentiment in the Australia. Our forecast for the near future remains negative.