11.07.2016 - Strong labor market data in the US, supported the dollar
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed decline on Friday against the publication of a strong labor market statistics in the US, which indicated the temporary nature of the recent slowing of positive dynamics in the US labor market. Thus, the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector increased to 287 thousand in June against the forecast of 175 thousand, but at the same time, the unemployment rate rose by 0.2% to 4.9%. Today, the dynamics of trading can affect news from the summit of finance ministers of the Eurozone and the speech of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas President Esther George (14:00 GMT). The probability of the Fed raising interest rates fell on the background of the expected exit of Great Britain from the EU, but the positions of the US currency are likely to continue to strengthen on the background of positive dynamics. Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British currency continued to consolidate against the pressure from a stronger US dollar. Tomorrow in the UK Parliament will be held meeting on inflation, at which may be announced further plans on the monetary policy of the country in connection with the results of the referendum on the country's exit from the EU. Business activity in the country will continue to decline and capital outflows will continue, resulting in a further drop in the British pound. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen declines against the US dollar within the correction. Investors fixed position after the quotes came close to the psychologically important levels. Volatility on the market has declined, and investors' concerns about the impact of the UK exit from the EU mostly priced in. Today, was published the data, according to which the volume of domestic orders for engineering products in Japan except the vessels and municipal equipment fell by 1.4% in May against the forecast of growth by 3.4%. Our medium-term outlook remains negative due to the forecast of the dollar strengthening, a soft monetary policy in Japan and weak statistics in the country.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar has grown, despite the strengthening of the US dollar. Despite the decline in prices for commodities with the exception of gold, the Australian dollar continues to rise, partly due to the increased interest of investors in government bonds of country that have the highest rating, but at the same time, their yield is higher than in the US. The potential for further growth of the Australian dollar is limited and we expect to see a resumption of the negative dynamics in the near future. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to rise in connection with purchases of local government bonds, whose yields are higher compared to the American. On this week's trading will continue to affect the dynamics of commodity markets and the US dollar, as well as important statistics from China, which will be published on Friday. Despite current growth, we expect the resumption of the negative dynamics in the near future and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.