11.07.2016 - The negative dynamics of oil is likely to continue
The price of gold has shown increased volatility on Friday after the publication of statistics on the labor market in the US, according to which the number of non-farm payrolls in June has increased by 287 thousand vs. expected 175 thousand. It is worth noting that the level of unemployment in the same period increased by 0.2% to 4.9%. The growth of gold is maintained by a low probability of the Fed raising interest rates this year, as well as increased interest in defensive assets against the backdrop of fears of negative dynamics on the stock and commodity markets. On Friday will be published important data on the growth of China's GDP and inflation in the US, which may lead to strong movements on the market. Our forecast for the medium term remains positive.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil continued to decline after on Friday was published data on the number of active drilling in the US, which grew for the fifth time in the last 6 weeks. In addition, the dynamics of trade negatively affects the weakening demand from Asian consumers. Among the risks for oil prices are the completion of the formation of strategic oil reserves in China, which supported oil in recent years. Saving oversupply of oil on the market, the growth of drilling activity in the US and concerns about the global economic slowdown will put pressure on oil in the near future. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.