Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro yesterday ceased to grow and resumed the downward movement due to technical factors, statements of the Fed’s officials that reported on an improvement in the labor market, which will lead to an increase in wages, but stressed that inflation has not reached the target levels. Today, the dynamics of the euro will affect the data on the index of business sentiment of the Eurozone (09:00 GMT), the index of small business optimism in the US (10:00 GMT) and wholesale inventories in the US (14:00 GMT). According to our forecasts, the euro quotations with a high probability will continue to fall in the near future and in the medium term against the background of strengthening the dollar and the pressure of quantitative easing.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound yesterday showed strong growth against a background of technical factors that come amid the absence of a fundamentally important news. It is worth noting that retail sales calculated by RBC rose by 1.2% in July, compared with 1.8% in June. Today, we should pay attention to the statistics on the index of leading economic indicators. Investors will not rush to open positions before tomorrow's release of the report on the labor market in the UK. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect the resumption of price reduction in the near future.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continues to consolidate near the levels of the previous day. Yesterday was published strong data on balance of payments, which fell short of expectations, but point to a steady flow of currency into the country as investment income and growth in the tourism sector. Today, the dynamics will be affected by the news on the volume of orders for engineering equipment in Japan (06:00 GMT). Tomorrow will be published an important statistics on the volume of industrial production. We expect a further decline in the price of the yen against the backdrop of a soft monetary policy and a stronger US dollar. Our medium-term outlook is also negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar fell sharply after the release of statistics on the index of business sentiment of the country, which unexpectedly fell in July to 4 against 8 in May. On the other hand, the positive became news about the growth of the volume of new lending in China in July 1480 billion against the expected 725 billion. Tomorrow will be published important statistics on consumer confidence in Australia and the industrial production in China, which could accelerate the fall in the price of the Australian currency. According to our estimates, the negative trend will continue in the medium term and in the near future.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continued to fall following the Australian currency. Tomorrow the course of trading will be affected by the data on industrial production in China, which is a key trading partner for the country. Investors expect a further reduction in interest rates of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, that together with low prices for export commodities will put pressure on the price of the New Zealand dollar in the medium term.