11.09.2014 - Unemployment datahas strenthened the Australian Dollar
The price of euro after an attempt of correction resumed the decline. Thus, yesterday was only published data on industrial production in France, which grew by 0.2%, compared with an expected fall of 0.4%. At the same time in the United States wholesale inventories rose by 0.1%, compared with an expected growth of 0.5%. Moderate growth rate indicates the absence of imbalances between production and consumption. Today we should pay attention to the data on the consumer price index in Germany (06:00 GMT) and in France (6:45 GMT), as well as data on the labor market the United States (12:30 GMT). In the evening (19:00 GMT) will speak Mario Draghi. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook with the target of 1.28.
The price of the British pound continued strong movements amid speculation about the future referendum on Scottish independence, which will be held on 18 September. If the referendum results will point on staying of Scotland as part of the United Kingdom, we recommend to open long positions and expect a sharp and strong upside movement of the pound. Today, we expect reduced volatility and do not recommend to open positions before September 18.
Japanese Yen continues to fall against the strengthening of the American currency. Investors are awaiting the completion of the quantitative easing program and assume the possibility for more early rise in interest rates, which will lead to an increase in the dollar. At the same time, the negative impact of increasing the sales tax in April may lead to additional measures to stimulate the economy by the Bank of Japan. Traders expect the talks of Prime Minister Abe and the head of the Bank of Japan Kuroda on the future of monetary policy in the country. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the yen.
The price of the Australian dollar corrected upwards after a heavy fall. The reason for the sharp rise was the data on the labor market, where the number of employees has increased by 121 thousand, compared with an expected growth of 15.2 thousand people. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 6.1%, which is 0.3% better than the previous figure and 0.2% better than the forecast of analysts. Despite the current growth, the position of the Australian dollar looks uncertain due to a drop in iron ore prices to 5-year low. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar with the objectives of 0.90 and 0.89.
The New Zealand dollar continued to fall after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rates unchanged and repeated theses regarding unreasonably high value of the national currency. It should be recalled that earlier Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced its intention to raise interest rates by 1.0% for the year, but in this quarter due to the deteriorating economic situation in the country refused from rising. We maintain our negative outlook for the coming months.