11.09.2015 - The British pound showed strong growth
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continued its gradual rise amid expectations of a number of investors about saving of interest rates of the Fed at the same level in the near future. In addition, pressure on the dollar has the statistics on the reduction of import prices in the US by 1.8% in August, which is 0.1% worse than expected. The number of initial unemployment claims in the US decreased to 275 thousand, which is 4 thousand better than expected failed to significantly affect the mood of investors. Today will be published important statistics on producer price index in the US (12:30 GMT) and US consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the euro and expect the Fed's decision on interest rates.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound rose after yesterday's statement of the Bank of England on monetary policy. Thus, the rhetoric of the regulator was more hawkish, and according to statements by the representative of the bank, inflation accelerated at the end of the year, but in the coming months will remain near current levels. Only one member of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to raise interest rates. Waiting of monetary policy tightening will support the growth of the British pound. Today, we should pay attention to the volume of production in the construction sector and the inflation expectations of consumers (08:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen is consolidating after recent declines. Investors did not rush to build up positions ahead of the weekend and the future Fed's decision on monetary policy. Statistics on the index of business sentiment in large industrial companies of Japan, which rose in Q3 to 11.0 vs. -6.0 in the previous period has improved investors' expectations for the Japanese economy, but could not lead to a rise of the Japanese currency. On Monday, volatility is likely to grow after the release of the report on industrial production in July. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the yen.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar has stabilized after recent gains, which was caused by the improvement of investors' expectations regarding the situation in China, thanks to the efforts of the Government to support the growth of the stock market. Earlier, the price growth was supported by positive data on the labor market that in the future will lead to an increase in household consumption and support the growth of GDP. Despite the recent positive, we estimate growth of price as a temporary and recommend holding short positions on the Australian dollar and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed modest growth despite the positive statistics on the index of sentiment in the manufacturing industry of the country, which increased in August to 55.0, against 53.7 in July. We recall that the price is under pressure of the recent decline in interest rates of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to 2.75% and expectations of further easing of monetary policy in the country. Our medium-term outlook remains pessimistic and we recommend holding short positions.