According to estimates of the International Energy Agency, oil production in the OPEC rose by 160 thousand barrels per day to 33.64 million barrels per dayin September. This fact reinforces our skepticism regarding the execution of the agreement by OPEC countries reduce oil production, especially considering the fact that Iran, Libya and Nigeria will continue to increase the volume of oil supplies. At the same time, the Russian oil and liquid gas production increased by 400 thousand barrels in the last month, and this has led to reaching a record in the post-Soviet period production volume of 11.1 million barrels per day. According to our estimates, the oil may rise in the near future, but the potential of increase will be low and we expect a soon resumption of the negative dynamics and fall by 15-20%. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.