11.12.2014 - ​Data on retail sales in the US will be in the spotlight

The price of euro continued its growth amid weakening US dollar and fixation of short positions. Despite the upward momentum, the potential for further price increase is negligible. Data on industrial production in France, which in October fell by 0.8%, compared with an expected growth of 0.2%, did not affect the course of trading. Index of requests for mortgage lending in the US grew by 7.3% against the previous decline of 7.3%. Today, it is worth paying attention to the consumer price index in Germany (07:00 GMT) and France (7:45 GMT). The main event of the day will be the publication of data on retail sales for November and the data on the labor market in the US (13:30 GMT). We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the euro and expect the resumption a drop in prices today.

The price of the British pound yesterday showed a steady growth against a background of comments of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney about the intention of the central bank to raise interest rates despite the low level of inflation in the country. At the same time, the data on the trade balance showed a reduction of the deficit to 9.6 billion, which is 0.1 billion worse than the forecast, but 0.9 billion better than in the previous month. The reasons for the improvement of the situation was the reduction of oil imports and a slight increase in exports. Today, the course of trading will depend on the statistics from the US. We recommend to wait for a signal to open positions.

The price of the Japanese yen after a substantial correction is trying to stabilize and to stop strengthening. Speculations about the victory of the Liberal Democratic Party of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe have led to a weakening of the Japanese currency quotes. We recall that the Mr. Abe stands for stimulation of the economy by a substantial injections of liquidity. Despite this demand for yen as a defensive currency is supported by concerns about the growth of the Chinese economy, and the fall on global stock markets. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the volume of industrial production in the country. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the yen.

The Australian dollar continued to grow in connection with the publication of data on the labor market in the country. So, in November, the unemployment rate remained at 6.3%, but the number of employees increased by 42.7 thousand, against the forecast of 15.2 thousand. It is worth noting that earlier quotes of the Australian dollar rose against the background of the correction and the weakening US dollar. Tomorrow we expect increased volatility due to the publication of data on industry in China. Potential for further growth within the correction is limited, and we keep the medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar with the target at 0.80.

The price of the New Zealand dollar rose sharply after the statement of the head of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on the need for a gradual increase in interest rates for inflation in the country to remain at around 2.0%, at the same time policy tightening will be at a slower pace than was previously expected. It is worth noting that the prices for dairy products remain low and current account deficit will continue in the near future. In this regard, we expect the renewal of falling the prices and maintain a medium-term negative outlook.

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