11.12.2014 - Investors' expectations for growth stock indexes deteriorated
US stock indexes yesterday showed a decline. The main reason for the deterioration of the situation was a report of OPEC in which again pointed on the downward forecast of oil consumption produced by the cartel countries for 300 thousand barrels per day. Today we expect a strong increase in volatility in connection with the publication of important data on the labor market and retail sales in the US (13:30 GMT). In the absence of new drivers for growth and weak economic indicators in Asia, investors close their long positions. At the moment, there is a possibility of early termination of the Christmas rally. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the US stock market.
Most European markets yesterday showed a decline amid falling shares of oil and gas companies. Statement by OPEC on reduction of oil consumption forecast, which is produced in the cartel in 2015 to its lowest level in 12 years continues to put pressure on the indexes. In addition the UK trade deficit narrowed to 9.6 billion, which is 0.1 billion less than the forecast. Today, the central event of the day will be a report about the target level of the program LTRO (10:15 GMT). Given the weak economic performance in the euro zone, we expect the launch of new stimulus measures by the ECB, which can support the growth of the stock markets, but so far, our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region continues to fall against the background of deteriorating investors' expectations about the prospects for growth in the US indexes. Japanese stocks continued to decline against the strengthening yen and Chinese investors continue to be under the pressure of tighter lending regulations in China. The Australian market is declining due to low commodity prices, despite the improvement in labor market in the country. Tomorrow, in the center of attention will be the data on industry in China. We forecast drop in the indexes in the region in the medium term.