11.12.2015 - Data on retail sales in the US will be in spotlight
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro corrected down after strong growth in previous days. It is worth noting that the number of initial unemployment benefits in the US rose to 282 thousand, against 269 thousand previously. Today we expect the publication of important statistics on retail sales in the US (13:30 GMT). We should also pay attention to the statistics on consumer confidence and inventories in the US (15:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we look forward to strong growth of volatility on the next week after the Fed's decision regarding the increase in interest rates.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound could not continue to grow and began to decline. It is worth mentioning that yesterday, the Bank of England said about saving parameters of monetary policy, and noted that low oil prices will restrain inflation for some time. Thus, the interest rate has remained at a historically low level of 0.50%. Negative for the British pound was the news on the growth of the trade deficit of the country, which in October was 11.8 billion against 8.8 billion in September. Next week, we should pay attention to the statistics on inflation in the country, as well as the Fed decision on monetary policy. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the British pound.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the yen corrected downwards and continues to show a higher level of volatility amid expectations of the Fed’s statement on monetary policy on December 16. On Monday, in the country will be published statistics on the volume of industrial production. We look forward to maintaining a high level of volatility before and after the Fed's monetary policy in the United States. Our medium-term outlook for the yen remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar is corrected after yesterday's increase caused by strong labor market data in Australia, where the unemployment rate continued to decline and reached 5.8% by increasing the number of jobs in the sectors that are not related to the mining sector of the country. At the same time it is worth noting that the economy continues to be under pressure of the weakness of trade, which is caused by low commodity prices. We expect the price decline of the Australian currency in the medium term to a level of 0.70 and beyond.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar after the recent decline in interest rates of RBNZ by 0.25% to 2.5%, showing strong growth and is now consolidating below the important level of 0.68. Today was published statistics on the index of business sentiment in New Zealand, which rose in November to 54.7, against 53.2 in the previous month. Given the rhetoric of the regulator, as well as the negative impact of the trade balance, we expect continuation of falling prices. Our medium-term outlook is pessimistic.