11.02.2014 - Markets are waiting for the Fed report on monetary policy
American stock markets closed the trading session with a slight increase. Investors do not hurry to choose the direction because of the lack of important macro and expectation of semi-annual report on monetary policy of the Fed, which will be presented by Janet Yellen. Further growth is also limited by psychological resistance level 1800 of the S&P 500.
Yesterday, in the euro zone, was published the investor confidence index, which increased to 13.3 against the forecast 10.3. This fact did not have a significant influence on the dynamics of the euro, but the price of the pair showed a moderate growth. The course of trading today can be affected by data on wholesale inventories in the U.S. (15:00 GMT). The speech of the new Fed chief Janet Yellen will start at 15:00 GMT. In this regard, possible increased volatility on stock and forex markets.
The British pound continues to consolidate near the level of 1.64. Data on retail sales in January showed an increase by 3.9% compared with growth of 0.4% a month earlier. The central event of the week will be the release of quarterly report on inflation of the Bank of England and the speech of Mark Carney, which will take place tomorrow at 10:30 GMT.
Today in Japan is a day off - the Day of foundation of country. We expect low activity of traders throughout today's session. Investors will pay attention to external events and signals before opening a position.
Australian dollar has reached the psychological level of 0.90 again. Retest of this level shows the strength of the bulls, but if it fails, the quotes can rush down and will be heading to the lower boundary of the descending channel. The reason for optimism was the publication of data on the business confidence index, which rose in January to 8 versus 6 in December. Further dynamics of AUD/USD will depend on unemployment data, which will be released on Thursday.
Price of Light Sweet crude oil continues to consolidate near the level of 100 dollars per barrel. Traders expect the Fed statement concerning plans on further reducing of its asset purchasing program, moreover at 21:30 GMT, will be released the data on change of oil inventories from the API. The record production levels in the U.S., reducing tensions on the nuclear program in Iran, which should result in the growth of the supply of oil to the world market, as well as the reduction of quantitative easing program of the U.S. Federal Reserve, continue to put pressure on quotations of oil.
The price of gold has continued to grow amid uncertainty on global stock markets. The weakening of the U.S. dollar has played on hand of bulls. It should be noted that consumer demand in China, which is the largest consumer of gold in the world, has reached 1,000 tons in 2013, at the same time, production has reached a record level of 428.16 tons. We expect a decrease in activity of the bulls and the mid-term price correction.