11.06.2014 - The World Bank has reduced global economic growth forecast to 2.8%
With each passing day probability of correction on the stock market increases in America. The absence of new incentives for growth on the market has led to the fact that yesterday's trading session closed almost unchanged. Rise in wholesale inventories in the U.S. was 1.1% in April, compared with an expected growth of 0.6%. Such increase indicates that consumption lags behind production and rising inventories may have a negative impact on the continued growth of the economy. Among macro statistics today we should pay attention to the index of mortgage lending applications in the U.S. (11:00 GMT). We forecast the beginning of the correction on the U.S. stock market in the near future and save a long-term negative outlook.
On European stock markets yesterday was observed a moderately positive mood. Investors expect that the measures to fight low inflation announced by the ECB will support growth on the stock markets in the Eurozone. Industrial production in France rose by 0.3% in April against a fall of 0.4% in March. Today we should pay attention to data on the labor market in the UK (8:30 GMT). Further growth can be triggered by support from the ECB, but the market has a need for a significant correction. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for European markets.
Asian stocks ended the day without a single direction. So, most of the indexes fell on the background of lowering world economic growth forecast to 2.8% vs. 3.2% forecasted in January. Among the main reasons for the revision of the forecast are called deterioration in the U.S. due to the bad weather this winter, the slowdown in China and the tense situation in Ukraine. The Japanese market is still growing, and the Australian continues to decline despite the increase in the consumer confidence index is up 0.2% in June, against a decline of 6.8% in May. We expect further growth of the market in Japan in the medium term, but keep negative outlook on Chinese and Australian market.