12.01.2015 - The price of the US dollar is corrected
The euro price of corrected upwards after a strong downward movement in the previous days. It should be noted that the statistics on the US labor market on Friday was better than expected, but investors were disappointed by the growth rate of wages in the country. So the US unemployment rate in December fell to 5.6%, which is 0.1% better than expected and 0.2% better than the previous figure. At the same time, the number of new jobs has increased to 252 thousand against the expected 241 thousand. Wage growth for the year was 1.7%, and in December hourly wages fell by 5 cents. We expect the resumption of downward dynamics after a minor correction and volatility today will be limited due to the lack of publication of statistics in the euro area and the United States.
The price of the British pound continues to correct upwards amid weakening US dollar and the need for the rollback after a dip in the previous week. Statistics from the UK shows a slowdown in industry and in the construction sector of the country. Low oil prices put pressure on inflation. Tomorrow will be published statistics on inflation in the country in case of reduction of which quotations of the British Pound may continue to fall. We expect continued upward movement within the correction, but at the moment there is no reason to change the downward trend.
The Japanese yen continues to strengthen after the release of statistics on the US labor market, which has led to the weakening of the US dollar. Today in Japan is the day off and investor activity will remain low. The demand for defensive assets also remain elevated due to the fall in oil prices, the political crisis in Greece and geopolitical risks. Tomorrow is expected the increase of activity of traders in connection with the publication of data on the balance of payments in Japan. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the yen, but assume continued growth of prices in the near future.
The price of the Australian dollar continued to strengthen against the background of the fall of the US dollar. The growth of the Australian dollar is also supported by the rise in the price of gold and copper. In addition, it was necessary to adjust the price after a long and strong reduction in recent months. Investors will continue to monitor the statistics on lending in China, which affects the volume of Australian exports in China, as well as the price of iron ore, which is the main export product of Australia. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook, but in the near future the price growth is likely to continue.
The price of the New Zealand dollar could not continue to grow following the Australian currency and stabilized around the level of 0.7850. For the continuation of ascending movement is required additional stimulus. It is worth noting that the previous increase was unreasonable and at the moment there is the possibility of renewed price declines. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the New Zealand currency.